[Today’s Prayer] “Iran: Revolutionary Guard seizes control of decision-making… low likelihood of progress in ceasefire talks” <ISW>

An analysis has emerged that since the outbreak of war with Iran, the hardline Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which takes a strong stance against the United States, has effectively taken control of decision-making within Iran, making the possibility of reaching a ceasefire agreement unlikely.

The U.S. think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), together with the Critical Threats Project (CTP), assessed the current state of the U.S.-Iran conflict in a special report on the Iran war released on the 25th (local time).

According to the report, after the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei due to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and his close inner circle effectively took control of the regime. It is reported that Vahidi and his military inner circle are leading decision-making while thoroughly excluding civilian officials, including Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

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ISW particularly noted that the IRGC’s refusal to compromise with the United States makes it unlikely that negotiations will see meaningful progress.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi did visit Islamabad, Pakistan, on the 24th to convey Iran’s position regarding the end of the war. However, he soon departed again for Oman, and no plans for direct talks with the United States have yet been arranged.

Pakistani media also reported that Iran is refusing direct meetings with U.S. representatives and is demanding the lifting of U.S. naval blockades as a precondition for negotiations.

ISW pointed out that this pattern—characterized by inflexibility, adherence to maximal demands, and the use of preconditions to delay or block negotiations—reflects a consistent negotiation strategy led by the IRGC.

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U.S. media report that Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, despite becoming Supreme Leader, has not been able to fully consolidate power and is heavily reliant on the IRGC for governing the country.

There are also observations that the Supreme Leader was seriously injured during airstrikes, leaving him unable to function or communicate normally. The absence of a leader who previously mediated between military and civilian officials is said to be intensifying factional conflict between moderates and hardliners within Iran.

Source: Yonhap News

“Since the children have flesh and blood, He too shared in their humanity so that by His death He might destroy him who holds the power of death—that is, the devil—and free those who all their lives were held in slavery by their fear of death.” (Hebrews 2:14–15)

God, we hear the news that after the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei due to U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and his core associates have effectively taken control of the government, leading decision-making while thoroughly excluding civilian officials.

Even as Mojtaba Khamenei has become Supreme Leader but has not been able to consolidate power, and the anti-U.S. hardline IRGC effectively governs Iran—making the possibility of a ceasefire agreement unlikely—Lord, please have mercy on the people of Iran who continue to live their daily lives in this situation.

Lord, we ask that You would destroy every force in Iran that opposes You and exerts influence through death, and that You alone would reign over the Iranian people through Jesus Christ. May the rulers of Iran come to fear Jesus, who has conquered death, risen again, and defeated the devil, so that they may truly govern for the good of the nation.

May the Iranian Church remember Jesus who overcame death, and rise as a church that boldly proclaims Him without fear of death. And through the Iranian Church, may all those who are bound in falsehood and living in spiritual bondage be led to Jesus.

And so, may the people of Iran rise as an army that leads the spiritually dead nations—who have long lived in bondage—into life in Jesus Christ.